Guster’s Blunders: Week 7: Where Do I Go From Here

3-3 Boys! I cannot say I am surprised that the competition is a tie after 6 weeks. So far this has been quite a close challenge and Gus actually does know how to gamble. Most weeks could have gone either way, and for that, you guys are getting the entertainment you deserve. Gus had a busy week and did not get to write a recap, so a quick summary of last week’s challenge is below. What we learned is that I should stick to the NFL. Gus has the clear edge in NCAA football and I shouldn’t have let my hail mary week 3 pick get to my head.

USC +10.5 @ Notre Dame: Result: 30-27, Notre Dame. Gus covered cleanly and the week started off poor. I think my biggest surprise here was what the USC offense did against the ND defense. I was expecting bigger things from the ND secondary. I was also surprised at Ian Book’s pedestrian day. Not a great combination and it led to a hot start for Gus.

Jac -1.5 v. NO: Result: 13-6 NO win. A win is a win is a win. I will not lie to my faithful supporters, I expected a higher scoring game. Something in the realm of 23-14, especially with Ramsey missing the game with a “hurt back.” Luckily for me, Minshew had his first bad game as a pro because the New Orleans’ defense put on a show and Bridgewater did just enough to beat the spread by a whopping 5.5 points.

CLE +2 v. SEA: Result: 32-28 Seattle. This game epitomizes this competition so far. Simply looking at the final score would give you an idea that this was a close game, but it doesn’t reveal that this one could have gone either way. Baker not only threw for 3 interceptions in this one, but a goal line stop (even if a turnover allowed Cleveland to score plays later) gives Gus every reason to believe that he caught a bad break in this game. The truth is, I don’t disagree. I think that this game truly could have gone either way and Baker’s bad day doomed him. But, this is not the first week that was decided by such a close game and it is the first week where the game went against Gus (probably because the Chargers weren’t involved). Either way, it ended with a win for me.

I call it how I see it. This week Gus made some great picks. Hence the title of this post. What do I do? This week could be the first week I take the lead in the competition and I do not want to squander it. Quite the pickle, especially with Gus attempting to bait me into taking the Pats. Having seen what Darnold did in return from his boyhood sickness and knowing Mosley is returning, it is hard to think that the Pats, with an inept offense that may be without Gordon and Dorsett, can cover a 10 point spread. With that, the other 4 NFL games Gus went with each offer some reason to consider them, as all the spreads are fairly tight. Having said that, the rules of our competition gives little incentive to challenge an even number of games and I think Gus came out on the right side of most of the games. I will give a short breakdown of each, then list my pick.

LAR -2.5 @ ATL: Gus took the Rams, favored by 2.5. Here is the thing, prior to the Ramsey trade I could see Atlanta, shit defense and all, taking this game. The Rams’ offense has been inept to say the least (good thing I traded for Goff) and the Falcons have a talented offense. It could have been interesting. I think in the end, Gus made the right pick and I will not challenge this one.

IND -1 v. HOU: This is a coin flip game. One point is essentially meaningless, as there have been 9 tied games since 2008. I am a bit surprised Gus is taking Indy as Houston just knocked off the Chiefs and is looking frisky.

NYG -3 v. ARI: Another tempting game. Danny Dimes or Kyler Murray? Golden Tate or Larry Fitz? David Johnson or Barkley? Shit defense v. shit defense? I am also a bit surprised that Gus took the Giants, but not altogether shocked after the Giants had a strong showing sans Barkley against the Pats. I am avoiding this one because Kirk’s health is uncertain and Engram and Barkley coming back worries me.

OAK +5 @ GB: Against all odds, Oakland is 3-2, with 2 of those wins coming against the Bears and the Colts. On top of that, Green Bay is missing Adams for yet another game. Sadly, I agree with Gus that Green Bay will cover this spread. Tyrell Williams is out, Rodgers is better than Carr, and the Green Bay defense is actually good.

As a result, I am challenging the IND -1 v. HOU. I don’t love being stuck with a game because Gus made great picks otherwise, but here we are. Hopefully Fuller doesn’t drop 4 touchdowns this week…

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