In light of the travesty of the NFL Top 100, I thought I would shed light on the correct ranking of the (likely) starting QBs in the NFL today. For transparency, this list represents how I view the starters for next year. This does not reflect what I think of their future. For these reasons, you will notice that guys like Tua and Burrow, two guys I think could be studs, are ranked relatively low, ahead of only those QBs who I think should be replaced or have failed to show they deserve to be the starter next year.
This list also does not reflect who I think will have the most wins, as that is a team stat. This may help explain why I rated Drew Lock over a guy like Philip Rivers even though I think the Colts will likely have more wins than the Broncos next year. While I did my best to judge this purely on the QB, I do admit it is hard to separate the team from the QB. This can be seen in my rankings of Drew Brees and Tom Brady above Watson. Watson might be the better QB at this point in their careers, but it is hard to separate how I think Brees and Brady will perform from how Watson might perform if he were on that team.
The takeaway is this is my list, I do not care what any of you think, and I do not want this list thrown in my face when I am very wrong on ranking a guy like Goff over Murray.
I am not going to provide commentary on all 32, but I will justify 6 players on this list.
Patrick Mahomes: Far and away the most talented player at the position today. First year as starter was the MVP, second year as a starter he played through an injury and won a Super Bowl. The NFL Top 100 is stupid.
Lamar Jackson: I will say I am expecting a major regression this year, but even taking that into account a guy like Lamar, surrounded by the weapons he has, will have an incredible year. He can run, he can throw, and he has a great coach. His floor is a year to be envied by other QBs, his ceiling is another MVP.
Tom Brady/Drew Brees: Brady and Brees are 5 and 6 but could easily be flipped. While they are past their prime, both can make all the throws needed to excel and have the weapons and coaches that will allow them to do just that. While they may have lost a little bit after turning 40, they are the two smartest players at the position and can take advantage of any defense with their ability to audible.
Josh Allen: Keegan and Don Eaves, I tried to be fair here and almost put Josh Allen as high as 11 (right ahead of Big Ben). But, I think there are tiers, and Josh Allen is clearly in that 3rd or 4th tier of QBs going into this season (tier 2/3 ends at Wentz depending on how we judge tiers). Within his tier, I think Drew Lock was extremely impressive last year and the Broncos added Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler to go with Sutton and Fant. I also think Kirk Cousins is more established and has shown he can succeed in the Vikings system and Jimmy G will only improve in his second full season as a starter.
Cam Newton: How to judge Cam Newton? Is he healthy? Do the Patriots have any weapons? Newton was only ranked ahead of guys like Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield because if healthy, he has shown the QB he can be and Josh McDaniels and Bill will scheme up a system that will allow Newton to succeed in ways that QBs further down on the list cannot.