Guster’s Guarantees

 

 

Woody im back

 

FOOTBALL IS BACK!!! Man does it feel good to say that

Welcome to another season of free money courtesy of everyone’s favorite charitable turtle, Gus. We had such a tremendous performance in the pilot season that the good folks at the Wasted Talent Fantasy Football League made the wise decision to renew for another season of winners.

If you had your head in the sand last year or don’t like money, we finished the year with an overall record of 42-33 (56%) which would make you a nice little profit to go along with the free entertainment of making 75 games a lot more interesting. Lets see if we can run it back this year and get over that 60% mark.

I’m sure many of you are wondering where I get my picks from each week. Like any smart business man, I am willing to share just enough of my wisdom to capture your interest but not enough to make myself useless. I work my magic according to a handful of guiding principles. Some of these may seem obvious and familiar, others not so much. Most of all gut feel and learning from years of experience are what make you a winner. So pay attention:

  • The public is usually wrong – when it comes to betting on sports, there are way more joe-shmo drunk degenerates who bet with whichever direction their dick is pointing than there are level-headed, savvy and educated handicappers. Teams like the Cowboys, Steelers & Patriots are amongst the most publicly over-bet teams and you can usually take advantage of that when it comes to the spread.
  • Trends matter – look beyond the surface level factors like record ATS, how good the QB is, how many championships they’ve won, etc. Consider the not so sexy contributors – How much has the team had to travel recently? How do the teams matchup via scheme? Are either team looking ahead to something? What are the emotional factors at stake for each team?
  • Read the line movement – where a spread opens and where it closes at kickoff can tell you a lot about what the public, the sharps, and Vegas think about the game. A really diligent gambler will grab the best spreads as soon as they open and then evaluate additional positions based on movement. This is an advanced level practice but if you pay attention you can pick up on the trends.

As the season progresses I will continue to impart wisdom from what we see in our picks. So grab your lucky rabbits foot or whatever the hell you have for good fortune and let it ride baby!

*disclaimer: Guster’s Guarantees is not liable for any wagers lost in relation to any suggestions made during this segment*

 

Week 2 NCAAF Picks

Missouri -14 vs West Virginia

Maryland -2 vs Syracuse

Texas A&M +17 @ Clemson

Texas +6.5 vs LSU

North Carolina +5 vs Miami

 

Week 1 NFL Picks

BAL -6.5 @ MIA

SEA -9.5 vs CIN

IND +6.5 @ LAC

PIT +6 @ NE

HOU +7 @ NO

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