Hello Guster Nation! Tremendous start to the year as we have our second profitable week in the books with the cherry on top in the form of a cash wad bitch slap win over Josh. Keeping with the spirit of friendly wagers I will be sure to dole out my due share of trash talk which is afforded to a 2-0 lead, but I am also a firm believer of staying humble and waiting until your opponent in far enough behind in the rear view mirror before fully unloading the gloat parade. So lets breakdown how the challenges shook out last week and i’ll let that do all the talking for itself.
Week 2 challenged picks:
Lions +2.5 vs Chargers
Josh seems to think that I have some personal bias against the Chargers going against them in back to back weeks. I can assure you that while Austin Ekeler has been outstanding in his first two games as the featured back I am still quite happy with the much needed receiver depth that I acquired in return. What I do have a bias against is teams with cluster injuries going on the road after playing an extended game. I love a home dog hosting a shorthanded opponent. As expected, this game was close and never extended beyond a one score game. Josh will likely try to paint the picture of an unlucky loss as a result of 2 missed field goals, LA’s costly fumble at the goal line in the 3rd and a Rivers interception with a minute left in the 4th near field goal range. I would challenge that notion by saying that turnovers aren’t a product of bad luck, but bad decisions which the Chargers make quite often. They may have been near field goal range before that late pick, however the injury to Mike Badgley meant punter Ty Long would have had to attempt it, making it far from a sure thing to be successful. Either way, Lions secure the 3-point win, 1-0 Gus.
Rams -2 vs Saints
Unfortunately this game will be defined by a hand injury that knocked Drew Brees out of this game early. It would stay tight until the Rams broke it open late in the 3rd and would prove too much for heir apparent backup Teddy Bridgewater to overcome. There isn’t much more to note on this game – the Rams win by 18, 2-0 Gus.
Falcons +2 vs Eagles
Sunday night’s battle of the birds proved to be a good one with a couple of late lead changes resulting in an Atlanta 4 point win. Atlanta looked to be in control to cover the majority of the game until Carson Wentz was able to orchestrate a 13-play 4th quarter touchdown drive with the two-point conversion to knock Atlanta out of the money with 3 minutes left. Matt Ryan was able to come back with a swift response of his own, hitting Julio Jones for a 54 yard score to steal back the win and get us back into the green, 3-0 Gus.
Gus takes a 2-0 week lead over Josh and 5-1 on total picks. I’m sure he will spew some sob story about his picks but frankly I do not care how the sausage gets made. A win is a win, on to week 3.
College picks – [4-1]
Wake Forest looked excellent for the majority of the night on Friday winning by 18 into the 4th until they seemed to let their guard down and allowed two late touchdowns to push them out of the money. Thankfully, they were able to recover and hit a field goal to take a 6 point lead and survive the scare. Pittsburgh fought hard against Penn State in a game they had a great chance to win but sadly fell short by a touchdown. I always like to root for big upsets but on the bright side they came away with a stress-free clean cover. BYU vs USC was a thriller and very entertaining to watch. BYU would go in and out of the green with USC forcing overtime and BYU pulling out a 3 point win securing the 3rd win of the day. The first loser of the weekend would be Michigan State who was a no show against Arizona State. Not only did they come nowhere near covering the two touchdown spread, they would also lose the game which offers me some solace knowing they will go home unhappier than I am about their performance. Saturday night Virginia came back from a 4th quarter deficit to beat Florida State by a touchdown.
Pro picks – [4-1]
In addition to the 3 challenge wins, Buffalo took care of business once again at Metlife beating the Giants by two touchdowns. This result tells me more about the Giants, confirming this team simply doesn’t have the personnel on either side of the ball to compete. While I think the Bills defense will be one of the stingiest in the league, they may become overvalued against teams that won’t gift them wins like the Jets and Giants did. We’ll look to take advantage of in the upcoming weeks. The lone loser of the week was Pittsburgh who lost Big Ben in the first half while on pace to cover. As you can see, everyone catches bad breaks, not only Josh. Speaking of which, another gambling nugget to keep in mind touches on luck. If you look at teams who won an abnormally high number of close games in a given season, that trend likely will revert to the mean in the following season. A stellar Sunday to stack on top of a huge winning weekend.
Overall Week – [8-2]
Season Record – [15-5]
Total Record – [57-38]
*DISCLAIMER: GUSTER’S GUARANTEES IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY WAGERS LOST IN RELATION TO ANY SUGGESTIONS MADE DURING THIS SEGMENT*
Week 4 NCAAF Picks
Utah -4 @ USC
Pittsburgh +11.5 vs UCF
Texas A&M -3 vs Auburn
Wyoming +3.5 @ Tulsa
Washington -6.5 @ BYU
Week 3 NFL Picks
DET +6.5 @ PHI
UNDER 43.5 NYJ @ NE
HOU +3 @ LAC
PIT +7 @ SF
LAR -3.5 @ CLE
Wasted Talent 