Well folks, we have ourselves a competition. Josh finally snagged himself a win on the backs of the Auburn Tigers. Who knew Josh was such a big college football guy! I actually respect the move of desperation he decided to pull this week after falling behind 0-2, which i’ll give a little math lesson to help show why it was truly his best chance of coming away with a win.
Lets consider the numbers – Before this weeks picks, Guster’s Guarantees has had an impressive success rate of 60%. Josh’s strategy through the first 2 weeks was to try to win on a best 2 out of 3 picks. Using this strategy gives 4 different possible outcomes that would get him the desired outcome:
A) Win all 3 games: (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4) = 0.064
B) Win game 1, win game 2, lose game 3: (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6) = 0.096
C) Win game 1, lose game 2, win game 3: (0.4 x 0.6 x 0.4) = 0.096
D) Lose game 1, win game 2, win game 3: (0.6 x 0.4 x 0.4) = 0.096
Adding all of his possible winning probabilities: 0.064+0.096+0.096+0.096 = 35.2% chance of success.
Josh must’ve come to his senses and realized that his knowledge of the NFL couldn’t bridge the 4.8% gap that he was giving up with this strategy and resorted to taking the implied 40% chance by challenging one single game that he knew nothing about (other than the AP rankings). Bravo Josh, its about time you wised up and made this fun because I was worried this would turn into a runaway.
As I have preached many times before, gambling is always a game of chance on a micro level but over the course of the whole year and multiple years stacked together, my guiding principles and strategies will ensure a net profit (and a victory over Josh).
Alright that’s enough math for today, lets go over what happened in the single challenge of the week: Auburn (8) vs. Texas A&M (17) -3:
Once again Josh broke one of my cardinal rules of gambling – Don’t rely on rankings. If the rankings were any kind of true indicator of match-ups then Auburn should have been favored considering being 9 spots higher on the AP poll, yet Texas A&M was giving a field goal at home in College Station. Most novice gamblers would see the higher ranked team as an underdog and take those points like a mouse taking a cube of cheese. I guess this time the mouse trap didn’t snap and he got away clean. Auburn would be in control for the majority of this game, stifling the formidable A&M rushing attack. Taking a 21-3 lead into the 4th quarter, Auburn would show its first sign of weakness allowing A&M to get its foot in the door and cut it to 21-10. Auburn was then able to respond and get the touchdown back stretching the lead back to 3 scores. A&M made one last push getting a late field goal and a touchdown but fell short in recovering the onside kick and Auburn would hold on for a 28-20 victory. A clean cover for Josh to get his first victory of the year, but you have to question whether his blind picking strategy will have the legs to keep him in it the rest of the way. Only time will tell. 1-0 Josh.
Josh cuts the weekly lead to 2-1; 5-2 Gus on total picks.
College picks – [3-2]
First game of the week would feature Utah (-4) visiting USC on Friday night. The Trojans were coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to BYU last week and missing their starting QB JT Daniels to injury from week 1. Matters would immediately get worse for USC as they now lose their replacement QB Kedon Slovis on the 2nd play of the opening drive, leaving their fate in the hands of 3rd string junior Matt Fink. What would seem like a slam dunk bet would prove to be anything but, as the Trojans responded to the adversity with a heroic effort. Fink put on the performance of his life throwing for 351 and 3 TDs versus a sloppy showing from the Utes resulting in a 30-23 victory for USC. Texas A&M would contribute the second loss of the slate which we touched on earlier, but thankfully this would be the end of the woes for the day. Pittsburgh (+11.5) found itself in another thrilling contest going from a 21-0 lead to a 10 point deficit in the second half and somehow finding a way to a 35-34 win which would snap UCF’s 27-game regular season win streak. Wyoming (+3.5) and Tulsa would set the stage for another exciting game with 4 lead changes as Tulsa squeezed out a 3 point win on a late touchdown making that extra half point really earn its value. Washington (-6.5) left no need for any additional stress, burying BYU by 26.
Pro picks – [4-1]
Josh picked a good week to stay away from my NFL picks as they were a half point away from a clean sweep. The Lions, Texans and Rams would all deliver their 2nd covers of the year in convincing fashion along with the Steelers who made up for their disastrous week 1 showing. I experienced significant angst in deciding on my 5th pick, as both the Jets +21.5 and the under 43.5 were enticing. I was absolutely confident in the fact that the Jets offense would not be able to put up points behind 3rd string QB Luke Falk, leaving the question as to whether it was more likely that the Patriots would be held under 40 in a cover or the Jets picking up some garbage time points to backdoor cover and potentially hitting the over. I decided that a 38-3 outcome was more realistic than 30-14, much to my regret. The Pats would surrender 2 touchdowns on turnovers, killing the under despite taking their foot off the gas when they brought in backup QB Jarrett Stidham. Sometimes even when 99% of a game goes exactly how you’d expect that 1% can be the difference that burns you. Regardless another stellar week in the books.
Overall Week – [7-3]
Season Record – [22-8]
Total Record – [64-41]
*DISCLAIMER: GUSTER’S GUARANTEES IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY WAGERS LOST IN RELATION TO ANY SUGGESTIONS MADE DURING THIS SEGMENT*
Week 5 NCAAF Picks
Texas Tech +27 @ Oklahoma
Washington -10 vs USC
Ohio State -17 @ Nebraska
Utah -6 vs Washington State
Nevada -2.5 vs Hawaii
Week 4 NFL Picks
MIA +15.5 vs LAC
HOU -4 vs CAR
WAS +3 @ NYG
ARI +6 vs SEA
NO +3 vs DAL