Guster’s Guarantees

DJ Khaled breath

The grind continues! One of my favorite proverbs that I have always kept close to the heart goes, “The tree that bends with the wind does not break”. Yet another challenging week was thrown our way and once again we withstood the test and hung tough to work out a split result. It can be easy to get discouraged after hitting a rough patch but if you can hold it together and stay focused, the results will swing back in your favor. I know I must sound like a broken record at this point but a big week is right around the corner, I can feel it in my bones. Josh found a way to steal another win despite taking a bite from the forbidden college football fruit and put himself in a hole once again going into Sunday. Alas, its a new week and I’m confident Josh strategy of throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks will fail him, its only a matter of time. In the meantime, take a deep breath and remember what got us here.

 

JOSH CHALLENGES:

Minnesota +7 vs Penn State

As I mentioned, Josh just couldn’t resist taking another stab at one of my college picks where he is now 1-6. Few reasons I loved this bet – Penn State was just given the last playoff spot in the first official rankings release which added a lot of extra weight to the Nittany Lions shoulders going on the road against undefeated Minnesota. Going back to my gambling principles you should realize that these rankings would make a big splash in the public opinion which pushed the line all the way up to a touchdown. So adding it all together: playoff pressure + on the road + undefeated opponent + public favor = big trouble for Penn State. We ended up seeing just what I expected – Minnesota taking it right to Penn State from the get-go. A really fun game to watch as the Golden Gophers proved their legitimacy as a contender and held on for a 5 point win to pull off the upset.

1-0 Gus

CAR +5.5 @ GB

Boy, oh boy was this one a doozy. A classic Lambeau snow game got all the football juices flowing for this NFC bout. I liked the fact that the weather in this one might steer it towards more of a run focused game, where CMC had an appetizing match up against the lackluster Green Bay run defense. In the first half they would trade scores with the Packers taking a 14-10 lead into the half. Carolina’s offense sputtered coming out of the half, with Green Bay adding 10 more points in the 3rd to extend their lead to 14. Finally the Panthers would break through early in the 4th with a McCaffrey rushing TD to get back within striking distance of the spread after failing to get the two-point conversion, making it an 8 point game. The final drive would begin with Carolina backed up at their own 11 yard line and 2:24 on left on the clock. Kyle Allen was able to march the offense down the field, converting on one 4th & 10 and then surviving a second 4th down after GB was flagged for an offsides penalty, leaving the Panthers with 1st and goal at the Packers 2 yard line with 8 seconds left. After an incomplete pass, Ron Rivera decided to put the fate of the game in the hands of McCaffrey yet again. After being hit short of the goal line, a heroic effort was made to push him forward towards the end zone but somehow he was denied and the game was over. A particularly devastating ending for me as the cover was lost by a matter of inches, no McCaffrey fantasy points and to top it off, all three Green Bay touchdowns were scored by Aaron Jones and not by fantasy QB. That is a triple back breaker right there.

1-1

DAL -3 vs MIN

After the deflating Panthers loss, this weeks challenge would come down to Cowboys Vikings on Sunday night. I will admit this was one of my most confident picks of the week and it was all based on the most obvious trend of the week – Kirk Cousins 6-13 on prime time. Whenever I see the Vikings in this spot (especially on the road) I will not hesitate to bet against them. Now I will say that blindly betting trends is a dangerous game but sometimes you just have to find one you like and try to ride the wave. Unfortunately with the challenge on the line Cousins decided this was the day he was going to figure his shit out. I would also like to call out a parallel in this line of thinking as to why I picked Alabama this week as well. When I look at a big time match up such as these, I like to imagine losing from either side of the bet and ask myself – “Which scenario would you be more upset about?”. The answer to that question in this case was Minnesota. If I decided to go against the grain this time and back Minnesota and once again Cousins floundered under the bright lights, i’d be kicking myself all week just as I would if I took LSU and Bama pounded them per usual. Much easier pill to swallow when you play it safe. With that all being said, at the end of the day I lost both bets and I guess more true than any – “scared money don’t make money”. Anyway, Vikings beat the Cowboys 28-24.

2-1 Josh. Challenge tied 5-5

George frustrated

WEEK 10/11 RESULTS:

 

College picks – [3-2]

Ohio State -28 1H vs Maryland

42-0 1H Ohio State – WIN

Minnesota +7 vs Penn State

31-26 Minnesota – WIN

Alabama -6 vs LSU

46-41 LSU – LOSS

Iowa +9 @ Wisconsin

24-22 Wisconsin – WIN

Oklahoma -14.5 vs Iowa State

42-41 Oklahoma – LOSS

 

Pro picks – [2-3]

OVER 52.5 ARI @ TB

30-27 TB – WIN

IND -10 vs MIA

16-12 MIA – LOSS

CAR +5.5 @ GB

24-16 GB – LOSS

DAL -3 vs MIN

28-24 MIN – LOSS

SEA +6 @ SF

27-24 SEA – WIN

 

Overall Week – [5-5]

Season Record – [53-47]

Total Record – [95-80]

 

*DISCLAIMER: GUSTER’S GUARANTEES IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY WAGERS LOST IN RELATION TO ANY SUGGESTIONS MADE DURING THIS SEGMENT*

Week 12 NCAAF Picks

Ohio State -52 @ Rutgers

Indiana +14.5 @ Penn State

Mississippi State +18 vs Alabama

Auburn +3 vs Georgia

Minnesota +3 @ Iowa

 

Week 11 NFL Picks

CAR -5.5 vs ATL

UNDER 47 DAL @ DET

TB +6 vs NO

NE -3.5 @ PHI

KC -3.5 vs LAC

 

PICKS TRACKER

NCAAF NFL Week Season Total
Post # Year Week W L W L W L W L W L
1 2018 6,7 4 1 3 2 7 3 7 3 7 3
2 2018 7,8 3 2 4 1 7 3 14 6 14 6
3 2018 8,9 2 3 2 3 4 6 18 12 18 12
4 2018 9,10 3 2 3 2 6 4 24 16 24 16
5 2018 10,11 0 0 2 3 2 3 26 19 26 19
6 2018 11,12 2 3 4 1 6 4 32 23 32 23
7 2018 12,13 3 2 3 2 6 4 38 27 38 27
8 2018 13,14 2 3 2 3 4 6 42 33 42 33
9 2019 1,2 4 1 3 2 7 3 7 3 49 36
10 2019 2,3 4 1 4 1 8 2 15 5 57 38
11 2019 3,4 3 2 4 1 7 3 22 8 64 41
12 2019 4,5 3 2 1 4 4 6 26 14 68 47
13 2019 5,6 4 1 4 1 8 2 34 16 76 49
14 2019 6,7 4 1 0 5 4 6 38 22 80 55
15 2019 7,8 0 5 2 3 2 8 40 30 82 63
16 2019 8,9 3 2 0 5 3 7 43 37 85 70
17 2019 9,10 3 2 2 3 5 5 48 42 90 75
18 2019 10,11 3 2 2 3 5 5 53 47 95 80

CHALLENGE TRACKER

NCAAF NFL Picks Weeks
Week Gus Josh Gus Josh Gus Josh Gus Josh
1 0 0 2 1 2 1 1 0
2 0 0 3 0 5 1 2 0
3 0 1 0 0 5 2 2 1
4 1 0 0 2 6 4 2 2
5 1 0 2 0 9 4 3 2
6 1 0 0 2 10 6 3 3
7 1 0 0 0 11 6 4 3
8 1 0 0 2 12 8 4 4
9 0 0 1 0 13 8 5 4
10 1 0 0 2 14 10 5 5

 

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