“Good teams win, great teams cover.” – Josh Reich, last week. Well, I guess Steve, Don, Ryan, and I are great while Keegan is merely “good.” Naturally I went 5-0 in my predictions but we witnessed Don commit violence on Sacko, Ryan punished Donals, and Jafar nearly upset Keegan after trading away Hopkins. INSANITY. I also won some bets for real money and successfully reverse jinxed myself to a win! Overall record is 27-8. Go me.
This week’s Matchup of the Week relies on the RPR scale because FPR was too busy playing Call of Duty and forgot to blog. The totally objective, highly reliable, gold standard RPR scale has crunched the numbers, analyzed the players, judged the coaches, graded the
owners governors, and consulted a world class seer, rankings below.
- Don – he is good. A T1 team
- Steve – is is also good at the fantasy and plays elite defense in die. A T1 team
- Ryan – good, but not as good as Steve or Don. A T1B team
- Josh – great, the best, super deep, best troll in the group bar none. A T2 team (I wanted to be a T1C team but three subtiers seemed a stretch)
- Keegan – is Josh Allen’s arm still connected? A T2 team if Josh is alive, T10 if dead.
- GT – get some new athletic trainers. A T2 team
- Frank – frisky, great QBs, A+ fashion, C- food taste. A T3 team with upside
- Jafar – leaned into the rebuild, searches for those bargain trades, loves the running QB. A T4 squad with eyes to the future
- Donals – sells damaged goods to friends. A T4 team who has discovered young players are useful in dynasty
- Sacko – His entire roster did not break 100 points last week and only two players were on bye… A T12 team in a 10 man league who is likely to walk 18 holes.
Matchup of the Week: Steve (RPR 2) v. Keegan (RPR 5)
QB: Advantage Steve. Mahomes (QB2) v. Allen? (QB1) or Pickett (QB35). If Allen was healthy I would give this more thought but Mahomes is healthy and both teams have a mediocre matchup. Give me the guy without health questions on his throwing arm.
RB: Advantage Keegan. I keep picking against King Henry (RB3) and Najee (RB26). King Henry keeps proving me right and carries Najee in the RB matchups. BUT one day I will be right. Kamara (RB12) has mostly returned to form the last few weeks and is getting a ton of volume. I am also banking on the Cowboys giving Pollard (RB20) the touches he has earned despite what Jerry Jones is saying.
WR: Advantage Steve. Wow, what a matchup. Curtis Samuel (WR13), a WR I traded because he could not stay healthy, and Diggs (WR3), a WR I dropped because I am an idiot, v. Lamb (WR15) and AJ Brown (WR7). This is a tight one but, as I said in the QB matchup, I just do not trust Allen is fully healthy so am going to give it to Steve’s studs.
TE: Huge Advantage Steve. Kelce (TE1) v. Kmet (TE21). I normally give this zero analysis but have to acknowledge Kmet’s 3 TDs over the last two weeks and Fields’ emergence. But I do not yet trust Kmet to do it on a weekly basis and Kelce is Kelce.
Flex: Advantage Keegan? When I looked at the flexes for these two squads I thought “Oh, they must not have set their lineup.” Nope. The lack of depth for both squads is nearly as frightening as the Packers’ outlook. Lazard (WR27) and Patterson (RB33) are just meh but Lazard is against a great Cowboys defense and Patterson did not get elite volume in his first game back. By default, I am going with Conner (RB42) and Jeudy (WR34). Jeudy has stepped it up recently and Conner is at least getting volume?
Prediction: Steve wins and covers the 16 point spread when he wins by 27. I think the Bills play it safe with Allen. He will start, but not throw as much as normal and Keegan only goes off when Allen goes off.
Josh (RPR 4) v. Donals (RPR 9): I am favored by 20 but think Donals has a good chance to win unless I get lucky. (Reverse Jinx please help me again).
GT (RPR 6) v. Sacko (RPR 10): If Sacko breaks 100 it may be close. I doubt he breaks 65. GT wins by 55 and covers the 37.6 point spread.
Ryan (RPR 3) v. Frank (RPR 7): Frisky Frank is a 13 point dog and has a QB decision to make. With Tua in the starting spot he is banking on the Dolphins embarrassing the Browns, which I think they can do. But the weekly dick pic matchup courtesy of ESPN has this as a landslide advantage for Ryan and I think Watson gets this one right. Ryan by 12.
Don (RPR 1) v. Jafar (RPR 8): A 28 point spread and some tough coaching decisions for Don. Jafar has zero tough decisions outside of QB because his bench is nearly as bad as Sacko’s. Don by 45.