Matchup of the week: week 4

No surprises to anyone other than Frank The Doubter but I nailed my predictions last week. Mahomes smoked Russ, Kelce nearly doubled Higbee (ok but not by 15), and Patterson embarrassed Sanders. Overall I went 4-1 last week in classic Josh fashion. Good thing Draft Kings does not offer parlays on WTFFL.

This week’s Matchup of the Week features Don (FPR 3) and Keegan (FPR 5). This matchup features the two most recent Naomis and Don is favored by a mere 3.4 points. Lets dive in.

QB: Large Advantage Keegan. Lucky for Keegan the ability to spike a ball does not factor into fantasy stats! Too soon? The Patriots’ season is over so just let me be bitter and celebrate the Bills’ loss. Either way, I expect Allen (QB 2) to feast against a weak Ravens defense after that bad loss. It looks like Don is benching Russ (QB 25) because he sucks and is trotting out the young buck Lawrence (QB 10), who has been a pleasant surprise but gets an extremely tough Eagles defense. I hope Lawrence lights the Eagles up for selfish reasons but I just do not see it happening.

RB: Advantage Don. What is happening to Kamara (RB 54) who has averaged 7.5 points in the two games he has played? Connor (RB 28) is not doing much better with an average under 11 points per game. I am not discounting the possibility of Kamara and Connor dropping 40 combined but Chubb (RB 2) and Mixon (RB 16) are the duo I want this week.

WR/Flex: Slight Advantage Don. This week I am grouping them all together because it just seems fairly clear that Don has the overall advantage in a matchup where both teams are trotting out for WRs. Kupp (WR 2), Adams (WR 11), Metcalf (WR 42), and Olave (WR 22): without Metcalf I think this group could put up 75 points. The Raiders have to realize they need to get Adams the ball and the Rams do not know how to offense without Kupp getting 10 targets. And if Thomas or Landry are out Sunday Olave may get another 13 targets. Now Geno blows but Metcalf is his guy and Metcalf must have read my column last week because he caught 5/12 targets (shitty) but got a TD (not shitty) for 17.4 points. The yards will not be there but Metcalf is a TD threat. Call this a coinflip for Metcalf.

Before Bills fans freak out I do think Diggs (WR 1), my former boy toy Samuel (WR 8), Bateman (WR 30) and Jeudy (WR 57) will keep this matchup close. Diggs alone could drop another 40 and Samuel seems to be the go to guy in Washington dropping 15-20 points weekly until he pulls a hammy or tweaks his groin. Add in a porous Buffalo secondary and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson throwing to Bateman and Keegan’s group could easily come away as the higher scoring group. My hesitation is twofold: (1) Jeudy has been the clear second fiddle to Sutton and (2) I do not see Diggs catching 3 more TDs. TLDR – This will be close.

TE: Huge Advantage Don. Keegan’s tight end situation is bleak at best. He is the only one who looks at Jafar’s TE room and is jealous. In weeks 1 and 2 Keegan did not even have a TE contribute a point to his total! This week Keegan is trotting out the desperation play of Cameron Brate (TE 31) against Kittle (TE 51) who has missed 2 games. I think Jimmy G bounces back and Kittle gets in a groove in his second game back. Couple that with my assumption that Evans, Julio, and Gage play and eat into any targets that Brate may see and this is easy.

Prediction: Don wins the battle and Naomi supremacy.

Jafar (FPR 8) v. Josh (FPR 4): This is projected to be tight but rules are rules so you know who I am picking. Lamar may drop 40 again but hopefully the Bills have a plan. I am hoping my high floor guys carry the day against Jafar’s boom or bust squad.

Donals (FPR 9) v. Frank (FPR 6): Donals is coming in HOT after his first win of the season and it is that time of year where Frank’s team gets injured. But I have to pick Frank here. Matchups and handcuffs will carry him and Donals team needs some retooling.

Ryan (FPR 1) v. GT (FPR 7): No upset for GT this week. Can blocks roll? Regardless, roll Blockhead! Full disclaimer, this was tied with the Matchup of the Week in FPR average but had a less intriguing storyline and a higher likelihood of a blowout. Having said that, this is a game that could determine whether GT makes playoffs so maybe his team comes out swinging and DJ Moore catches some balls if GT does not bench him first.

Sacko (FPR 10) v. Stove (FPR 2): Stove by a mile.

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