Last week if you read between the lines I went a perfect 5-0 but since I am truly objective and will never pick against my own squad I in fact went 4-1, bringing my overall record to 11-4. We have a lot of juicy games with the projected playoff teams and the projected Sacko teams all playing each other.
This week’s theme is next man up and it is exemplified in our Matchup of the Week between two Goliaths, Steve (FPR 1) and Ryan (FPR 3). This new concussion protocol is going to cause a lot of issues, which we saw last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting knocked out the first snap despite being concussion free ultimately screwing me over and taking all the drama out of last week’s Matchup of the Week. The new policy along with bye weeks and other injuries means depth will be more important than ever. The Blockhead Boys are decimated by bye weeks and injuries with a total of 13 unavailable players as compared to 5 players for Steve. At least Ryan’s coaching decisions will be easy!
QB: Advantage Steve. Outside of Mac Jones this matchup features two of the most exciting young QBs in the NFL but I am giving the edge to Steve. Mahomes (QB3) is a stud and faces a depleted Buffalo secondary in a shootout. Herbert (QB7) gets Keenan Allen back (if there is any doubt about Keenan’s god-like abilities please talk to Jafar) but is dealt a difficult hand facing the Broncos defense.
RB: Conditional Advantage Steve. Last year if I told you it was JT (RB31) v. Najee Harris (RB27) the question would be which stud RB hits 30 points. This year we wonder if either will break 10. What a world we live in. Thus, the RB1s are a wash due to the Colts and Steelers sucking and JT’s ankle injury so this advantage is determined by the RB2. Hunt (RB17) has a very high ceiling and is consistently getting nearly 3 receptions and 11 carries per game but is held back because Chubb is the man in Cleveland and is facing an elite New England defense this week. Eno Benjamin (RB43) has a juicy Seattle matchup and should be the only healthy RB for Arizona. IF BENJAMIN IS THE LEAD BACK give me Steve’s RBs. If not Ryan has the advantage with King Henry on the bye and Patterson on IR.
WR: Slight Advantage Steve. I am surprising myself picking against any WR room with Justin Jefferson (WR3) and Pittman (WR29) but Steve has a formidable duo in AJ Brown (WR11) and CeeDee Lamb (WR18). Jefferson is capable of dropping 30 any given week but Ryan is tied to the Colts and until Matt Ryan shows me something I cannot trust Pittman to do much. I am predicting Lamb or Brown or both to have a big catch and run TD in this divisional matchup. For Ryan’s sake let it be Lamb because if fantasy goes poorly it would be nice for the Cowboys to pull it out.
TE: Huge Advantage Steve. Kelce (TE1) v. Logan Thomas (TE20). Kelce had more points last week than Thomas has all season. That is all.
Flex: Advantage Ryan. Gabe Davis (WR28) and Mike Williams (WR9) on paper have the narrow advantage over Tyler Lockett (WR8) and Terry McLaurin (WR31). Geno Smith is balling and I do not see that stopping against Arizona. On top of that Gabe Davis is the definition of boom or bust with two weeks under 7 points, one week of 18.8, and one week of 32.1 points. I have said many times I value high floors over high ceilings, which is probably why I have three second place finishes, and Gabe Davis’ floor is a donut. As the resident master of statistics and statistical phenomena, trust me when I say that last week is a statistical anomaly and is unlikely to happen again. Davis had two long TD receptions and a short catch making up nearly all of his production on just 5 targets. I do not see his target share changing and I am betting KC does everything they can to not let Gabe Davis get over the top of their defense. And, as mentioned above, Keenan Allen is likely to return this week and I expect this to cut into the massive target share Mike Williams has been receiving. Thus, Lockett gives Ryan the edge here.
Prediction: Conditionally Steve wins this if Eno Benjamin is the starting RB this week but if not Ryan’s depth carries him to a victory.
Josh (FPR 6) v. Keegan (FPR 5): This is projected to be a tight matchup in a game I desperately need to win. If James Conner is out I may have the slightest advantage but in the end, this matchup is decided by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. I projected a high scoring Bills game and I predicted Gabe Davis will not have two long touchdowns. Read between the lines here.
Donals (FPR 7) v. Sacko (FPR 10): In another world this could have been the matchup of the week because Donals thinks this will be this year’s Sacko Bowl. I am rooting for Sacko this week but I think Donals is destined to win this week and in any future matchup on the back of Playoff Lenny and Deebo.
Frank (FPR 8) v. Jafar (FPR 9): Another potential Sacko Bracket preview although both of these teams have enough power to make playoffs. With Tua out and the possibility of Green Bay doing everything they can to prove they belong by embarrassing the Jets I think Jafar pulls this one out.
GT (FPR 4) v. Don (FPR 2): Oh how tempted I was to break my rules and analyze this matchup instead. As I predicted, GT is good and Breece Hall is legit. Can Kenneth Walker emerge as another young star alongside Hall? Can Geno pull Don to a victory? This is a coin flip with great intrigue but I am going with Don here.
GLHF.
Wasted Talent 