Welcome boys! Today we are going to be taking a look at the first round of our annual draft to get a better idea of what the hit rate is for each draft position in our league. And later into the season we will take a look at the other rounds.
Everyone always wants the 1.01 and this pick year to year always gives teams hope that this pick will be the one to turn the organization around. Let’s see whose been taken with the 1.01 historically: Zeke, Barkley, Josh Jacobs, JT, Chase and Hall. So far those are all hits and those organizations were right, getting the 1.01 can completely change your future outlook. No surprises here. 100% hit rate.
After the 1.01 it honestly gets a lot more risky. We have seen Laquon Treadwell, D. Guice, N Keal Harry, CEH, K. Pitts and K. Walker get taken second overall. That’s bananaland. 50% of those guys are useless and CEH and Pitts have been disappointing so far. CEH would need to step up a lot to prove his worth and Pitts will work out eventually I think. Walker looks like a hit already. I’m giving this pick a 42% hit rate. You’ve been warned!
With this pick we have seen CJ. Prosise, R. Penny, Cee Dee Lamb, David Montgomery, N. Harris, G. Wilson get drafted. CJ bust, Penny had like 3 weeks of value, but the rest of those guys are still dynasty buys for most so historically you’d rather have the 1.03 than the 1.02, who would have thought?! I’m giving this pick a 66% hit rate.
We’ve got Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, J. Jeudy, S. Michel, D. Smith, D. London with this pick. This pick is looking better than 1.02 as well eh? Henry is that dude, London looks like he will be a stud and Smith is still doing will with Brown in town. Sanders has been just ok, Jeudy looks good but needs a real QB/team, and Michel is probably the only real miss. I’m giving this one a 75% hit rate.
Michael Thomas, C. Ridley, JK Dobbins, Parris Campbell, T. Etienne, J. Williams. This is another fun group. RIP Ridley the degen but outside of that most people would be pretty happy with these guys outside of injury issues for like every other player taken in this spot. Thomas is/was great but he should have had a much longer shelf life and then Dobbins and Etienne have had injury issues, not busts by any means but they have missed quite a few games. And we have not even see and Williams play for DET yet so who knowns. I’m going with 70% for this one but that feels kinda high.
DK. Metcalf, Cam Akers, Ronald Jones, Sterling Shepard, J. Williams, T. Burks. With this group, Akers is and L so far, Jones is a joke, Shepard is sad, Williams is out for the year, and Burks is just not that exciting at this point with his QB. So I honestly think DK is the only full hit here and Williams and Burks are both still wait and sees. I’m going with a 33% hit rate.
AJ Brown, D. Swift, Kenneth Dixon, Royce Freeman, J. Waddle, J. Cook. We got another good one! Brown, Swift and Waddle are forsure hits, Freeman and Dixon are sure misses and Cook is a wait and see. Lets give the 7th pick a 62%.
J. Jefferson, Nick Chubb, Hunter Henry, Darrell Henderson, T. Lawrence, S. Moore. JJ and Chubb are great picks here. But the rest? Ehhh I think most of us would want a do over with our firsts if we ended up with Hunter Henry, Henderson, T-Law or Skye Moore. We are going with a 45% hit rate because those other guys are or were at least usable for stretches of games.
DJ. Moore, Kyler Murray, Ruggs III, Austin Hooper, K. Toney, C. Watson. Not a great round but Ruggs really brings things down. Moore is great but needs a QB, Murray is good for Fantasy but how long will it last if the team stinks? Then Hooper, Toney and Watson are all just blahhh. Lets go with 40% since Toney and Watson have lots of time to change our minds.
Last but not least we have the winners picks. Brandon Aiyuk, Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel, Pharoh Cooper, R. Bateman, C. Olave. That’s a pretty good group for guys who should be getting the bottom of the barrel for the first round. Cooper sucked and Aiyuk and Bateman are just ok but Deebo, Lamar and Olave are hits. Final pick is getting a 65%.
Well what did we learn? Drafting is a fucking crapshoot guys.