Paternity leave is much more boring than one would think so I have decided to steal a column idea from whoever previously did this. Sorry not sorry. Hopefully every week (time permitting) I will use the highly accurate rankings from Frank’s Power Rankings and analyze the matchup featuring the two highest ranked teams as well as predictions for the remaining four matchups as objectively as possible.*
This week the matchup of the week is a juicy one featuring the second ranked team and our defending Naomi champion, Don, against the third ranked team, Stove. The spread on this game is Don -0.1 points.
QB: Advantage Stove. It pains me to say as someone who has heavily invested in the Broncos offense but Hackett and Wilson (QB 20) have been BRUTAL. Mahomes (QB 5) on the other hand has been rock solid in real life and fantasy. Factor in a tough San Fran defense for Wilson and a porous Indy defense for Mahomes and this has the potential for a major positional advantage for Stove.
RB: Advantage Don. Simply put, Chubb (RB 1) and Mixon (RB 8) have shown much more through two weeks than Henry (RB 36) or Harris (RB 19). Henry and Harris are dealing with bad offensive lines, bad QB play, and seemingly tough matchups (although Cleveland is missing key defenders). Any gains Stove has from QB will be lost in this major RB disadvantage.
WR: Slight advantage Don. Kupp (WR 2), Adams (WR 11), and Metcalf (WR 57) v. AJ Brown (WR 13), Lamb (WR 44), and Gabe Davis (WR 46 but missed a game). This will decide this matchup. Kupp and Adams will get theirs but if Kupp or Adams do not have a monster game >30 points I think Stove wins. Stove has two WRs that are making me eat my words in Brown and Davis. Couple them with Lamb’s high target share against the dead weight of Metcalf and, while Don has the advantage because of Kupp and Adams and the potential Metcalf takes over a game, I think Stove’s high floor saves him.
TE: Advantage Stove. Kelce (TE 1), Stove’s big piece and the clear alpha at tight end. If Kittle plays this is closer than trotting out Higbee (respectable play at TE 7) but Kelce will be the TE1 wire to wire and will outscore Higbee by 15 points.
Flex: Advantage Stove. I decided to analyze this flex spot seperately than RBs to evaluate depth as well. Don has been historically lauded for his depth but without Godwin his depth is shaky, and it shows at this flex spot. Sanders (RB 12) is a guy I have never trusted but has outperformed Patterson (RB 17) this year. However, I think Patterson’s volume will be higher due to the Seattle matchup whereas Sanders has a tough Washington D line to deal with and a high scoring Washington offense led by Carson Wentz (not a typo).
Prediction: I think Steve wins on the strength of the Kansas City stack and Metcalf sucking.
Josh v. Ryan: Objectively no comment. But it will be a blowout.
Keegan v. Donals: Keegan should win but both teams have starting lineups that can drop 70 or 170.
Jafar v. Sacko: Sacko is projected for 105 points, potentially an all time low. He may pull this out but I am hammering Jafar.
Frank v. GT: Frank disappointed last week but beat me because Lance went and died. I expect his team to bounce back but I do love GT’s starters this week outside of Brown whereas game script may hurt Frank. Give me GT in a close one.
*My team always wins, objectively.